London: The Gold Standard in a VUCA World
As the world becomes increasingly uncertain, I find myself reflecting on how London has evolved. Once prized for its exceptional capital growth, London today has come to represent something even more valuable: stability. In a VUCA world — volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous — London has emerged as the gold of the property market. When I watch the news and my heart aches for the suffering of innocents around the world, I’m reminded of how grateful of where I live.
Why is London seen as a safe haven?
It offers a unique combination of political stability, a transparent legal system, world-class education, and a globally connected financial infrastructure. The city's time zone, language, and cultural openness make it a hub for international families and investors. Unlike many global cities, London's property market is underpinned by strong demand across all price levels and remains relatively resilient through cycles of uncertainty.
Despite the noise, I continue to hear encouraging stories. Yes, there are headlines about people leaving, but I also speak to clients returning — drawn back by London's unique blend of rich history, International and multicultural lifestyle, and property market stability. There really is nowhere quite like it.
We are in a bear market for London property but as Warren Buffet says, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful”.
For buyers I have not known a better time to be looking since 2008…
There really are some very compelling opportunities out there and my role is to uncover motivated sellers, who are both realistic and ready to transact; They are hard to find but do exist.
In my experience of over 20 years, these periods of buyers’ markets do not last long in London.
Asking prices have not dropped significantly but negotiations of 10% or more are possible, and I am actively encouraging offers that a few years ago, would have been unthinkable. For the sellers I manage, the key is pricing the property correctly from the start.
Prime Central London Market Review
Over the past year, Prime Central London (PCL) experienced modest price adjustments.
Savills reported a 2.6% annual decline as of Q1 2025.
Knight Frank reported a 1.3% annual decline in PCL prices as of March 2025.
Strutt & Parker highlighted a relatively flat market, with a 0.7% decrease in sales values over the year to Q1 2024.
“In my experience, prices in many areas have come down further than these figures suggest — except for the very best properties, which continue to command premiums.”
Forecasts
Looking ahead, leading agencies forecast cautious optimism:
Knight Frank projects a 3.5% growth in PCL prices for 2025, rising to 4% in 2027.
Savills anticipates a 2% annual growth in PCL in 2025, with a 17.1% increase over five years.
JLL expects a 2.5% rise in 2025, driven by demand for urban living.
Strutt & Parker estimates up to 10% growth over the next five years.
Off-Market highlights and trends
Off-market transactions remain central to my work and now represent a growing share London’s property landscape. In the last quarter, I've helped clients access opportunities in South Kensington, Battersea and Kensington that never reached the market.
Today’s market is more fragmented than ever. Many of the leading agents have left large firms and re-established themselves as independent brokers. As a result, it’s harder to track every opportunity, and relationships — the “black book” — have become more important than ever.
New Developments
Projects I am most excited about
Hans Place
Sloane Avenue
Bankside Yards
Final thoughts
In a world full of flux, there is great comfort in quality. London remains, in my view, one of the safest and most meaningful places to invest and call home.
As ever, I'm here if you'd like to chat — whether you're considering a purchase, relocation, sale, or just looking to better understand the lay of the land.
Warm regards,
Karim